Ukraine can currently export just 38% of its regular agricultural volumes, and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is negotiating with Turkey, Egypt and India to change that by reopening civil navigation in the Black Sea.

In an interview with Bloomberg News, Zelenskyy confirmed talks with the three governments on restarting Black Sea shipping, with grain exports as the priority. The stakes are large. Ukraine's Black Sea ports handled up to 40 million tons (36.3 million tonnes) of grain per marketing season before August, when Russian air attacks on port infrastructure and vessels halted the flow.

The arithmetic is brutal on land. "We cannot manage this volume of shipments by rail," Zelenskyy said. Rail simply cannot absorb what the ports used to move.

How the flag-state plan would work

Turkey, Egypt and India have proposed a practical mechanism: safe passage for vessels flying their flags, calling at both Ukrainian and Russian ports. The idea is symmetry, and mutual restraint.

"One ship heading to our port, and the other to Russian and we accept agreements not to strike either of these vessels," Zelenskyy explained.

So a Turkish-flagged bulker loads at Odesa while another loads at a Russian Black Sea terminal, and both sides commit to sparing them. In effect, Ankara, Cairo and New Delhi would underwrite the corridor with their own merchant fleets.

The obstacle is Moscow. Zelenskyy said Russia opposes the plan despite regular calls from Turkish, Indian and Egyptian intermediaries. Without Russian acquiescence, no insurer will price the risk and no shipowner will sail it.

What does this change for grain flows?

For now, very little on the water. The talks are live, the blockade is live, and the 38% export figure from Ukraine's Agriculture Ministry shows the gap that diplomacy has to close. What it does change is the negotiating architecture: Kyiv is now working through three major grain-importing flags rather than through a UN-brokered deal, betting that Moscow's own export interests plus pressure from buyers could force movement.

The attacks that throttled the ports followed Ukraine's strikes last summer on what's known as the Russian shadow fleet, which exports mostly sanctioned oil and fuel products. Escalation on one corridor shut the other.

Brussels asked to revive solidarity lanes

Zelenskyy also disclosed a second track: Kyiv has asked the European Union to renew its "solidarity lanes" program, which let Ukraine export grain via European railways and ports after Russia's full-scale invasion began in 2022.

"We are asking the EU to reinstate the 'solidarity lanes' to facilitate grain exports," Zelenskyy said. "Everyone needs this grain."

That appeal acknowledges the rail constraint he flagged earlier, and it targets surplus capacity in EU ports and rail networks rather than the contested Black Sea.

A separate Baltic lever

A related proposal adds pressure from another direction. Latvia has suggested Europe block the transit of Russian grain through Baltic ports, arguing that could force Moscow to seek ways to reopen Black Sea shipping. Squeeze the Baltic route, the logic runs, and Russia regains an incentive to talk about the sea it shares with Ukraine.

What comes next

The near-term picture is one of blocked capacity and diplomatic maneuvering. Grain that once moved in 40-million-ton volumes through Black Sea terminals now trickles out at 38% of normal levels. The flag-state proposal gives Turkey, Egypt and India a concrete framework to push, and the EU solidarity-lane request gives Brussels a role. Both depend, ultimately, on whether Russia decides a functioning Black Sea serves it better than a closed one.