Accepted truckload volumes have dropped more than 4% over the past four weeks to 9,518 on the Accepted SONAR Truckload Volume Index (ASTVI.USA), their lowest level outside a holiday week since January. Yet the national tender rejection rate (STRI.USA) has barely moved, holding near 13.9%. Volumes are falling and capacity pressure isn't easing. That combination is the whole story of this market heading into the holidays.

A year ago the math looked different. Peak season opened with rejections under 6% and the ASTVI roughly 2% higher than today. By that measure, the market has regained little, if any, efficiency over the past twelve months.

Fewer accepted loads after eleven months of elevated rates is not what most observers expected. The COVID era offers a benchmark. In the fall of 2020, carriers appeared to hit their ceiling with the ASTVI around 11,500 and rejection rates near 25% — demand running well beyond what fleets could handle. By spring 2021, carriers were accepting more than 10% more loads even with rejections still elevated. That market was tighter than today's. Even so, most would have expected accepted volumes to improve by now after months of firm rates.

Why isn't capacity responding to rates?

Because this cycle isn't built on demand. The COVID cycle was driven by rising demand; this one is driven by falling supply. From September 2019 to September 2020, tender volumes rose nearly 50% year over year and accepted volumes rose 20%, burning through the slack of an oversupplied market.

The current cycle surfaced almost out of nowhere. It first appeared during the 2025 holiday season, when rejection rates and spot rates ran well above the previous three years. Many questioned it at the time, because trucking demand was actually weaker.

Winter Storm Fern in late January was the second catalyst. It pushed tender rejections and spot rates higher, and neither has meaningfully retreated since. Again, demand wasn't the driver. Limited capacity was.

What's keeping new capacity out?

Barriers to entry are far higher now than in the last inflationary cycle. Three policy factors are keeping a large pool of potential drivers out of the industry:

• English language proficiency enforcement
• Stricter rules on non-domiciled CDLs
• Tougher immigration policies

The Montgomery v. Caribe ruling adds indirect pressure. Brokers are now less likely to use carriers with poor safety records. As of this past summer, close to 2% of carriers with substandard safety scores had been removed from service, according to GenLogs.

What about carrier economics?

Diesel has made it worse. Retail diesel prices are up 73% year over year. Dry van spot rates are up a still-impressive 43%, but they haven't kept pace with fuel over the past few months. That gap squeezes carrier profitability — a pressure largely missing in the COVID era, when diesel prices actually fell in 2020. Diesel spikes are especially hard on smaller carriers managing cash flow.

Financing is the other brake. Carriers that survived the stretch from mid-2022 to late last year are hesitant to invest in growth. Borrowing costs are much higher, and the low-cost government lending that helped carriers during COVID isn't available.

Supply always moves more slowly than demand. Right now it faces more headwinds than in any recent cycle.

What should shippers do?

Even with broader economic concerns in play, transportation procurement teams should prepare for a market that stays tighter for longer — into 2027. The usual playbook, in which elevated rates pull new capacity into the market within a few quarters, isn't working this time. Capacity exits and entry barriers are doing the work that demand did in 2020, and the data shows no sign of that reversing.

The indices to watch are ASTVI.USA and STRI.USA. If accepted volumes keep sliding while rejections hold near 14%, the supply-led squeeze has legs.