Spot rates from the Far East to the US ticked up again on 1 October, but the broader transpacific pricing surge that ran through September appears to have run out of momentum as China's Golden Week national holiday began.

Xeneta chief analyst Peter Sand said the timing is telling. "Spot rates from Far East to the US ticked up again on 1 October, but we can say with a level of confidence that the market has reached its post-Hormuz crisis peak in 2026," he noted, framing the current plateau as the ceiling of a pricing cycle driven by the Red Sea disruption rather than a fresh leg upward.

The holiday timing matters for the mechanics of the market. Golden Week traditionally shuts down Chinese manufacturing and export flows for roughly a week, removing cargo from the pipeline just as carriers blank sailings to protect load factors. That combination has historically marked a pause — and often a turning point — in transpacific rate negotiations.

For shippers, the apparent peak changes the calculus on the eve of contracting season. Those who rode out September's spot spikes now face a market that, on Xeneta's read, has stopped climbing. For carriers, the question is how much of the post-Hormuz premium they can defend once post-holiday capacity returns and cargo volumes normalize. Forwarders, meanwhile, will be watching whether the plateau hardens into a slide or holds as a new floor.

Sand's confidence that the peak is in suggests the September run-up reflected crisis-driven demand and capacity absorption rather than durable structural tightness on the trade. If that holds, the weeks after Golden Week should reveal whether transpacific spot rates drift lower toward pre-crisis levels or settle into an elevated band.