European airports took 1.1 million tonnes of sustainable aviation fuel in 2025 — a 2.8 percent share of the 39.3 million tonnes of total aviation fuel supplied, comfortably above the 2 percent floor the ReFuelEU Aviation mandate set. That is the headline from EASA's first real verdict on the regulation, and it is hard to spin as anything but progress.

The blend rate stood at just 0.6 percent in 2024. A more than fourfold jump in two years tells regulators the instrument works. It also puts the market almost halfway to the 6 percent target for 2030.

What did the fuel actually deliver?

In emissions terms, EASA puts the savings at 3.77 Mt CO2e. For scale: the average person on Earth emits roughly 6 to 7 tonnes of greenhouse gases a year, so 3.77 Mt equals the annual footprint of 550,000 to 600,000 people — about the population of Lisbon or Zagreb. After three years of the mandate, tangible.

The geography is concentrated. Five countries absorbed most of the volume:

• The Netherlands: 0.32 million tonnes, 29 percent of all SAF reported — the largest national take
• Spain, Germany, Italy and France: together lifting the five-country total to 0.8 million tonnes, or 74 percent of EU supply

Does the mandate change behaviour?

EASA's reading is yes, and its executive director did not hedge. "We are pleased to confirm that the SAF mandate under ReFuelEU Aviation was not only met but exceeded," Florian Guillermet said. "Through our monitoring work, EASA is building a strong evidence base to track this progress, understand how the European SAF market is developing and identify where further action may be needed to support the next stages of the transition."

That last clause matters for airlines and forwarders watching fuel surcharges. An enforceable mandate, unlike voluntary targets, has delivered its short-term aims — and the monitoring machinery now exists to spot where uptake stalls before 2030.

Where's the catch?

Feedstock. 85 percent of the SAF supplied at EU airports comes from outside the EU, and 80 percent of that fuel derives from used cooking oil. T&E, the clean transport advocacy group, flags the fraud risk: UCO accounts for over a third of European biofuel consumption, but imports are commonly mislabelled or mixed with unsustainable fuels such as palm oil.

Dependence on imports of uncertain origin is not a comfortable long-term position for EU aviation while geopolitical instability keeps disrupting air cargo operations. The mandate creates demand; it does not yet create domestic supply.

Follow the money

Brussels is now putting cash behind the mandate. The European Commission adopted a decision this month to allocate roughly 5.2 million EU ETS allowances — worth about EUR430 million — to 130 operators that used SAF in 2025. The support covers all or part of the price gap between fossil kerosene and eligible SAF monitored under the EU ETS.

The scale is notable. The 2025 allocation is four times the EUR100 million in allowances handed out for 2024. ReFuelEU and the ETS are starting to work in tandem: the mandate forces the blend, the trading scheme softens the cost.

What does this change for carriers?

For airlines, the compliance question is shifting from "can we source it" to "what does the spread cost after ETS support". For fuel suppliers, the evidence base EASA is building signals where the next stages of the transition will need action — domestic feedstock most likely. Complaints about airlines footing the bill may resurface; the transition was never going to be simple, and efficient use of the ETS is the Commission's answer.

With the blend rate already near half the 2030 target and allowance support quadrupling year on year, the trajectory points toward tighter enforcement and more money — provided the EU can clean up where its fuel actually comes from.