Europe–Middle East airfreight volumes fell 16.1% in July, IATA figures show, with Middle East–Asia traffic down 14.1% as the Middle East conflict forces carriers onto longer routings and pushes the economics of Europe–Asia–Gulf cargo firmly into the red.

Asia–North America keeps growing strongly, so capacity and demand are now moving in opposite directions on different lanes. Airlines avoid affected airspace; shippers hunt for alternatives.

Fuel, not fear, now drives rates. Airfreight prices sit 18% above last year on TAC Index's Baltic Air Freight Index for August, while jet fuel costs have climbed more than 76% on IATA's Jet Fuel Price Monitor.

"I think the fear part is gone, and I think that the prices are remaining relatively inflated due to fuel," said Arif Gasilov, Partner, Natural Resources and Built Environment at Gasilov Group.

Yagiz Sullu, founder and Lead Analyst at Sullu Strategic Advisory LLC, said: "The conflict in the Middle East is affecting global airfreight networks by increasing jet fuel prices and forcing airlines onto longer routes that consume more fuel. Carriers have started applying fuel and war-risk surcharges, and despite rising costs, some European cargo carriers such as Lufthansa and Air France-KLM Cargo have reported a surge in profits."

What do longer routings cost?

Beyond the fuel bill, extended flight paths cut aircraft utilisation. Fewer rotations per week means less sellable space across the network.

"Extra hours mean overall the plane does less flights across the board per week, and that means less space to sell with the lower number of flights overall," Gasilov said.

The gap between an 18% rate rise and 76% fuel inflation suggests carriers have not passed full cost increases to customers. Rates should climb again once September ends the summer discount season.

Lanes are diverging. Gulf corridors face falling prices as Middle Eastern carriers add capacity without matching cargo; direct Europe–Asia services stay tight because of reduced aircraft productivity.

"I think that the prices on Gulf routes will fall while prices on direct Europe to Asia routes will stay up, because Middle Eastern airlines are adding more space and not getting more cargo," Gasilov said. "There's extra space in the Gulf with nobody using it right now."

Temporary diversion or permanent change?

Both analysts read the shifts as temporary for now. The Russia–Ukraine war set the precedent: carriers routed around closed airspace and used extra hubs, but never abandoned the established network.

"At this stage, I would characterize the changes as temporary rather than permanent," Sullu said. "Airlines still have strong incentives to restore their original networks, as the Middle Eastern hubs have strategic value."

"The industry is unlikely to permanently abandon the Middle Eastern hubs, and for now it is diversifying by using additional hubs such as the Caucasus and Central Asia," he added.

Gasilov, however, points to a structural flaw the conflict exposed: "One airspace closure has closed down three of the world's biggest cargo airports at once, which is the issue: they're all in the same spot. There's no distributed resilience."

That concentration means one geopolitical event can knock out several major gateways simultaneously. "Shippers now want routes that don't share that same sort of concentrated risk," Gasilov said.

When does a detour become permanent?

The test is whether cargo keeps using alternatives across multiple peak seasons once the original routes reopen.

"I think it's when a detour becomes cheaper across the board than using the main route," Gasilov said. "I believe that after two peak seasons, for example this fall and the next, if cargo is still on the direct route, I think it's fair to say that it's becoming permanent."

Alternative hubs need more than geography. Spare capacity, customs speed, warehouse space, handling infrastructure and onward connectivity will decide whether they retain cargo. "I think Istanbul is good. It's in the correct geographical location, lots of spare room, as well as Singapore," Gasilov noted.

The price of resilience

The shift may run deepest in procurement. Shippers who scrambled in March for capacity now hold backup contracts — and plan to keep them.

"Keeping it costs almost nothing, but losing your only route again costs a lot," Gasilov said. "It's just shippers paying more for a contract with two routes instead of the cheapest one-route contract. The same thing happened with ocean shipping after the Red Sea."

"I believe that airlines and big shippers will accept slightly less efficient networks for safety," he added. "More direct flights and less funneling through large major hubs. It costs more per flight, but you wouldn't lose your whole network at once."

The likely landing zone is a compromise: Middle Eastern hubs recover their traffic, but a permanent layer of alternative routes, hubs and dual-route contracts stays in place as insurance against the next single-point closure.